First study of skilled workers reveals Jena's staff shortages

Jena Economic Development Agency examines specific needs of the local economy

Finding sufficient and, above all, the right workforce will remain the biggest challenge for Jena's companies, from skilled trades to high-tech, in the coming years and decades. Particularly in the healthcare industry, the manufacturing industry and the IT sector, the demand for personnel exceeds the available "potential". This is the conclusion of the first study on skilled workers in Jena, published by the Jena Economic Development Corporation (JenaWirtschaft) together with the Center for Social Research Halle e.V. (ZSH). For the first time, the study examines the personnel replacement and expansion requirements of Jena companies with regard to various growth scenarios and reveals important key figures and developments regarding the needs of the local economy. This process was accompanied by a steering group with representatives from business, science, associations and the employment agency.

Data and figures instead of "gut feeling"

"Our aim was to back up the general gut feeling about the much-cited shortage of skilled workers with concrete data and figures relating to Jena as a business location," explains JenaWirtschaft CEO Wilfried Röpke. "We are creating a fact-based foundation for the skilled labor challenge in Jena for municipal decision-makers, the administration and our cooperation partners." Based on the current status quo and various forecasts for economic and demographic development in the location, the first Jena skilled labor study examines the personnel requirements of Jena's economy by sector, qualification structures and other factors up to the year 2030. At the same time, these requirements are compared with the "anticipated endogenous and exogenous labor force potentials", as the study states. In other words, it looks at where potential new employees could come from. Endogenous - i.e. from "inside" Jena or exogenous, from outside.

High demand for skilled workers until 2030

And what does this mean for Jena? "The study confirms that the strong growth phase of the last decade will not continue in this form," says Röpke. "In the coming years and decades, we will be facing an extensive wave of retirements. To compensate for this alone, Jena's companies will need around 17,000 new employees by 2030," says Röpke. Depending on the growth rate, which was taken into account in the study with a low, medium and high variant, around 1,000 to 7,000 new employees will also be required in order to continue the positive growth at the location." The most sought-after skilled workers include people in the healthcare and social sectors, in manufacturing and in the IT industry. Particularly important for the local economy: people with traditional vocational training. According to the study, Jena needs around 53 percent of skilled workers with a qualifying vocational school qualification. The proportion of people with a university degree in the overall requirement is around 38.3 percent. Advanced training qualifications such as master craftsmen, technicians, specialists or foremen also remain very important, accounting for 16.8 percent of total demand. Around 8.6 percent of Jena's demand by 2030 will be made up of workers without vocational qualifications.

And where will these specialists come from? "The evaluation of endogenous and exogenous potential in the study is very exciting," summarizes Wilfried Röpke. The so-called endogenous potential - i.e. local people - includes school leavers, university students and graduates, internal potential - i.e. retaining those who are already here in the long term - as well as people who are currently working part-time or are unemployed. The conclusion of the study: Jena's endogenous potential - around 7,840 people by 2030 according to the study - is not enough to close the skills gap.

And what does the study say about exogenous potential, i.e. people from outside the city? The number of commuters from Jena's immediate surroundings will decline due to demographic developments: in 2018, Jena's commuter balance - i.e. the difference between inbound and outbound commuters - was up by around 14,800 people. The study predicts that this commuter balance will fall to a plus of only around 12,970 people by 2030 in the medium growth variant, because Jena's surrounding areas will be affected by demographic change to an even greater extent than the city itself. As this change affects the whole of Germany, the influx from other regions also only represents a limited potential for Jena. However, according to the study, good living and working conditions with a focus on local family friendliness can be particularly attractive for returnees.

Internationalization becomes an important field of action for Jena

According to the experts at the Centre for Social Research Halle, the most important potential for Jena is external migration, i.e. the influx of foreign skilled workers. ZSH Managing Director Susanne Winge confirms that Jena is in a good position for this: "Jena is already relatively international compared to the rest of Thuringia. However, it is important to actively shape the framework conditions for international skilled workers in a positive way and, in addition to good working and living conditions, to establish a genuine welcoming culture that ensures a real arrival in the city and active integration." Around 3,500 international skilled workers currently work in Jena; the potential is up to 10,600 people by 2030, according to the expert.

In addition to the comprehensive analysis of the skilled worker problem, the study also provides a series of recommendations for action. Based on these recommendations, Jena Economic Development is working with the steering group for the study and the Jena Alliance for Skilled Workers to develop a comprehensive catalog of measures by the end of the year. In addition to a strategic positioning of the topic, the aim is to offer concrete local solutions. Solutions that are urgently needed: A company survey conducted by JenaWirtschaft confirms just how crucial the problem is for Jena as a business location: the survey asked which local challenge represented the greatest obstacle to growth for the local economy. The most common answer, even before the availability of commercial space: A lack of skilled workers.